Who did what?

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has experienced so far four different presidency regimes. The presidency of Joseph Kasavubu lasted 5 years and accumulated an average foreign aid of $100,560,000 per year. Data on external debt and interest payments are not available from the world bank database for the DRC from 1960 to 1965.
The presidency of Mobutu Sese Seko is the longest so far. It lasted 32 years. Started on Wednesday November 24, 1965 with a military coup, Mobutu's regime ended as it started on Saturday May 17, 1997. The external debt stayed at an average of $6,256,484,259.26 per year. Interest payments to foreign creditors were on average $224,076,451.61 per year. Foreign creditors showed also mercy. They forgave an average of $14,174,814.81 per year of the DRC's debt. The DRC received foreign aid averaging $224,076,451.61 per year. It is difficult to determine the share of foreign aid that was military aid, financial aid, and technical assistance aid. If we have to consider foreign aid as a financial inflow to the DRC, Mobutu has only paid $52,560,193.91 per year.
The presidency of Laurent Desire Kabila started on Saturday May 17, 1997 and ended abruptly on Wednesday January 17, 2001. The foreign debt portfolio was $12,468,428,600.00 on average per year during the LD Kabila's regime. However, since Mobutu left behind a debt averaging $6,256,484,259.26 per year, LD Kabila's contribution to the DRC's external debt is $6,211,944,340.74. For someone who stayed in power for less than 4 years, it is a huge burden he left behind him. It implies that the whole war against Mobutu costed billions of dollars to Congolese. From this perspective, LD Kabila bought his presidency not only with his own life, but also with billions of dollar. LD Kabila was a bad debtor. He only paid $2,199,000.00 in interests and principals. Debt forgiveness during his presidency was on average $11,650,000.00, whereas foreign aid was on average $109,267,500.00 per year.
The current president succeeded his farther. Joseph Kabange Kabila is by far the best president in terms of debt forgiveness, accumulated debt, foreign aid, and interest payments. The average foreign debt is $9,851,324,461.54 per year, but his own contribution to the debt burden is only $2,617,104,138.48 on average. He is the champion of foreign aids. It amounts to $1,870,415,384.62 on average per year. He is a good debtor. He pays on average $197,808,076.92 per year. Joseph Kabila is definitely the president that has brought the foreign debt down. Debt forgiveness is on average $1,286,101,538.46.
These figures show clearly that the worst performer of all the 3 presidents (Kasavubu, excluded) is LD Kabila whose actions impacted negatively on the country. People support or hate individuals instead of policies. A bad policy does not become a good policy simply because a president said so. LD Kabila played a zero-sum game, and lost. Loving your country does not mean ignoring bilateral and multilateral agreements. Loving your country does not mean not paying your debt.
Congolese do not look at facts. If they did they would have been able to support Joseph Kabila in a number of economic and financial issues.
These figures give a clear indication on why the international community has supported Joseph Kabila. Not only he pays his debt, but he also has contributed to the reduction of the country's debt burden. If you want be loved by the international community, you should first pay your debt, and second respect your words. LD Kabila did not. He was killed.

Roads to failures

The Democratic Republic Congo (DRC) is a paradox of modern times. The country was expected to develop at a rate closer to that of Asian tigers. Many countries in the East Asia visited the DRC in the 1960s to take examples of its burgeoning agricultural economy. Many Africans came to Congo either to work or to study. It was a Country of the future. The war of 1960-1965 seems not to destroy the tools of production in many of the provinces of the Congo. Congolese who pursued their studies abroad returned home and they were the first generation of the Congolese elite.
When Mandela was arrested in 1962, he had faith that the DRC will become sooner than later a nation Africans will be proud of. He was obviously disappointed after his release from prison to learn that the DRC has became much poorer than South Africa. He could see by his own eyes that Congolese were many living in South Africa. The richest among them traveled there to cure themselves. Back home hospitals existed, but without skilled medical doctors, drugs, and medical tools, it was not thinkable to visit these houses of desolation.
The university of Kinshasa took its own road. Books were stolen. Resources were transferred from the public institution to private institutions. Students were intellectually and physically abused. Students were arrested for voicing their opinion about the founding president. PhD holders became full professors without showing any publication in peer-reviewed international journals. Those in power hated those exceptional professors preaching ethics, moral, and sciences of thoughts. It was not acceptable to teach students to think critically, to reinvent the Congo. and to transform the present in something brighter. They decided to make prominent professors ministers of toys and pleasures. The house of knowledge became the house of intellectual and physical prostitution.
When you examine the data from the 60s, you reach one conclusion. It was more difficult to get poorer than richer, but we did it all. We became poorer than ever in our history. We already were far behind other advanced nations technologically, but it seems not to bother any one. Since rich we were it was said, we will acquire everything we wanted elsewhere. Obviously, the poverty of mind was eating our brain. Music became an expression of what we want to become. Young Congolese with questionable morality started imposing their view on a generation of Congolese. Singers of questionable quality insulted Congolese from the country side. They presented Kinshasa as the place to be. The message was clear. Let us enjoy life. Only pleasure matters here in Kinshasa.
The government on its side was composed, decomposed, mystified, and nullified. The country adopted a new name without changing the president. With hindsight, Mobutu must have lost his mind. He did not hesitate to invade people's privacy. He was the owner of every thing. He stole foreigners' assets. People working for him developed policies to steal, to take control, and to be exempted from any future accountability. Data were not produced. State documents were intentionally destroyed. Statistics were the enemy to keep afar. Mobutu and his friends were fighting the state. Not longer enough, they decide to be the state themselves. Mobutu became godfather. Mobutu was not a mathematician, but he did invent one equality: "One Farther = One Chief = One Country".

Estimating standard errors in Excel

I will estimate the following model
Y(t) = a + bX(t) + e(t)
Y(t) is the GDP per Capita growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
X(t) is the change in the price of copper.
t indexes years.
the sample period is from 1995 to 2013.
e(t) is an error term.
a and b are unknown coefficients.
The null hypothesis is that change in the price of copper is not significantly related to the DRC's growth, even though copper is an abundant resource in the DRC that for long has greatly contributed to the state budget.

Copper price returns (X) = [-24.62%, -0.79%, -31.95%, -5.03%, 14.23%, -13.89%, -1.20%, 13.18%, 47.67%, 24.97%, 60.28%, 5.73%, -2.31%, -30.06%, 38.06%, 15.84%, -10.32%, -8.25%]

ones = [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]'

growth (Y) = [-7.41%, -8.00%, 0.00%, -8.70%, 24.12%, 0.00%, 35.67%, -16.25%, 11.12%, 10.01%, 9.10%, 12.26%, 10.92%, 3.39%, 6.45%, 3.08%, 11.44%, 7.80%]'

You can run a simple regression under Data, Data Analysis, and regression. What follows here is more a curiosity than a real challenge to estimate the unknown coefficients. However, you are losing nothing knowing what the program does by following its steps.

We know from the introductory course in statistics that the unknown coefficients are stack into a vector of coefficients, beta, which is here

beta = [a, b]'

beta = (X'X)^(-1)X'Y

X is a matrix including all the explanatory variables. Our explanatory variables are X(t) and ones with n by 2 dimension (nx2), which means that (X'X) gives a 2x2 matrix. In excel, select a 2 by 2 area and write in the first cell of the selected area the following

m1 = minverse(mmult(transpose(range of Xs),range of Xs)), and take ctrl+shift+enter

The dimension of X'Y is pxn nx1, giving px1, where p is the number of coefficients. Select two cells in a column, then write

m2 = mmult(transpose(range of Xs),range of Y), and take ctrl+shift+enter

The dimension of (X'X^(-1)X'Y is px1. Therefore select two cells in a column and write in the first cell of the selected area

m3 = mmult(transpose(m1,m2), and take ctrl+shift+enter

If you used the data above, a=0.052971 and b=0.105249.

It seems to exist a positive relationship between change in gdp and change in copper price. To make sure that such relationship is statistically significant we need to estimate the standard error of the estimates.

We first have to estimate the residual standard deviation. The dimension of the error is nx1, which suggests we have to select a range of the same dimension as our data. In the first cell of the select range write the following:

e = (range of y) - mmult(range of Xs,beta), and take ctrl+shift+enter
We also estimate the dependent variable residuals as y - average of y next to the column of e as
w = (range of y) - average(range of y), and take ctrl+shift+enter
We will compute both the sum of residual squares (ssr) and the total sum of squares (sst).
In a cell write to obtain

ssr = mmult(transpose(range of e),range of e)), and take ctrl+shift+enter => 0.24077
In another cell write to obtain
sst = mmult(transpose(range of w),range of w)), and take ctrl+shift+enter => 0.253078
We compute the residual variance as the ratio of ssr to n-p, where n is the number of observations.
In a cell write to obtain
n = count(range of ones) => 18
In another cell write to obtain

var = (ssr/(n-2))
In another cell write to obtain
sigma = var^0.5 = 0.122673
We compute the r-square as 1 minus the ratio of ssr to sst.
In a cell write to obtain
rsq = 1-(ssr/sst) = 0.048605
We compute the adjusted r-square as 1 - ((n-1)/(n-p))(1-rsq). In a cell write to obtain
arsq = 1 - ((n-1)/(n-2))*(1-rsq) = -0.01086

The standard error of a and b are sigma times their corresponding values in m1. The diagonal values in m1 are positive. use = to arrange the two values in a column. So, this is the diag vector. Select two cells in the column next to the estimated coefficients and write in the first cell of the selected range

s.e. = sqrt(mmult(range of diag), var), and take ctrl+shift+enter

The s.e. of a and b are 0.029514 and 0.116412, respectively. So, the t-stat for a and b are 1.8 and 0.9, respectively; far below 1.95.

We conclude that change in price of copper does not significantly impact the gdp growth of the DRC. We need may be to extend our model by including other variables and more data points. However, we have shown that we can estimate the unknown coefficients and their standard errors in MS Excel using the matrix language.

A simple active portfolio

The Treynor and Black (1973) model offers a simple procedure to add a stock with a significant alpha to the passive market portfolio. The main ingredients of the model are the stock alpha (abnormal return), the stock beta, and the stock residual variance. Additional statistics are the market risk premium, and the market variance.
The case where there is only one stock, it is easy since it requires only few steps.
Suppose you have estimated a simple index model, where you regressed a stock excess return on a constant and the market excess return. Suppose both the constant and the beta are significant coefficients. Your alpha = 1.75%, beta = 1.75, residual standard deviation is 30%, the market standard deviation is 25%, the risk-free rate (rf) is 3%, and the market return (rm) is 14%.
The first step is to compute the ratio of alpha to the stock variance. This ratio is the base of the model, and it is referred to as the information variance ratio (IR).
IR = alpha/residual variance = 1.75%/30%^2  = 0.1944
The second step is to compute the ratio of the market risk premium (MRP) to the market variance, which is referred to as the market price of risk (MPR)
MRP = rm - rf = 14% - 3% = 11%
MPR = MRP/market variance = 11%/25%^2 = 1.76
The third step is to compute the ratio of IR to mpr (W0), which gives the risk-unadjusted investment proportion in the stock.
W0 = IR/MPR = 0.1944/1.76 = 0.11048
The fourth step is to adjust W0 for the beta risk. This is the case when beta is different from 1.
W1 = W0/(1+W0(1-beta)) = 0.11048/(1+0.11048(1-1.75)) = 0.12046.
W2 = 1 - W1 = 1 - 0.12046 = 0.87954
W1 is the investment proportion in the stock, whereas W2 is the investment proportion in the passive market portfolio.
The last step to obtain the performance of the active portfolio (AP) is simplified, where the optimal investment proportions do not appear.
AP = (SM^2 + alpha^2/residual variance)^0.5, where SM is the market Sharpe ratio
SM = 11%/25% = 0.44
AP = (0.44^2 + 1.75^2/30%^2)^0.5 = 0.44385
An improvement of 0.0583 over the passive market portfolio
***
The same steps apply when dealing with a number of stocks with significant alphas. Suppose the following:
alpha = [0.001, 0.0005, 0.021, 0.00135]', where alpha is a transposed row vector
sigma = [0.15, 0.08, 0.3, 0.18]', where sigma is a transposed row of standard deviations
ones = [1, 1, 1, 1]', where ones is a transposed row of ones
beta = [1.7, 1.1, 1.95,0.95]', where beta is a transposed row of betas
rho = [0.2, 0.35, 0.7, 0.8, -0.35]', where rho gives the correlation for r12, r13, r14, r23, and r34.
To obtain W1 for each of the stock, we use Excel. Let me give the formula in two parts. Start by making a 4 by 4 variance covariance matrix (VCM), and write in the cell the following
a = minverse(mmult(mmult(transpose(alpha),inverse(VCM)),ones), and take ctrl+shift+enter
a is a scalar. For b select 4 cells in a column and write in the first of the selected cells
b = mmult(inverse(VCM),alpha), and take ctrl+shift+enter
c = mmult(a,b), and take+shift+enter giving W*
bp = mmult(transpose(W*),beta), and take ctrl+shift+enter, where bp is the beta portfolio
ap = mmult(transpose(W*),alpha), and take ctrl+shift+enter, where ap is the alpha portfolio
vp = mmult(mmult(transpose(W*),VCM),W*), where vp is the portfolio variance
W0* = (ap/vp)/MPR = 0.2423
W1* = W0*/(1+W0*(1-bp)) = 0.2367
W2* = 1 - W1* = 0.7633
AP* = (SM^2 + ap^2/vp)^0.5 = 0.447903
An improvement of  0.0838 over the passive market portfolio
***

Fear

Fear is a silent prayer. It sits deep inside. It guides thoughts. It is a power of some sort. I see it as a secret agent without announcing himself. An invisible agent, powerful, not refusing a pleasure to enter your dream.
Fear does not need an instructor. They say we are born with a fear to be abandoned and a fear to fall.
Fear shows the limit of life. A territory where life will be impossible to continue, not as I have it, but as I share it with others. Life does not exist in one individual, it only exists in us as a group of human beings.
 Don't be afraid, Jesus Christ said. Those are one of the words he pronounced not longer before himself needed to fight his own fear. Those are also one of the words for which we continue searching for the "true" meaning.
When does somebody tell you not to be afraid? When the hurdle is higher than normal. Does saying 'don't be afraid' make us not to be afraid? It is a spiritual communication. It is not the physical challenge we fear. We fear the idea of taking the challenge.
Ideas make us, make the world. Because ideas guide our future, controlling these ideas is the only policy of domination. Once all the channels are closed, we become prisoners. We are not free any longer to think by ourselves. It is as we cannot live without the freedom to use the alphabet in the way we want. It is as we cannot live without the freedom to use symbols and figures to express ourselves.
We don't fear to die. We want to walk to our death free. 

What about us?

The game of life you have both to play it and to watch it. If you only try either to play it or to watch it, you lose it. Of course, it is about being specialized to be able to play at least one game of interest. It is a fact of life that people are happier when they both play and watch. It is as to say you have to give and to receive. It is as to say you have to produce what is consumed, and to consume what is produced. Between playing and watching, giving and receiving, and producing and consuming, there should be a medium of exchange.
Countries differ in terms of the number of games, players, and spectators. More games is synonym of more production, consumption, and exchange opportunities. More players is synonym of more production tools. More spectators is synonym of more consumers.
We are survivors because we like to play games. We have invented many games since we are around. We made some games longer, other shorter.
At one point, we decided to invent a game where our meat is grilled. We could have continued eating raw meat. But grilling it made the game longer, more interesting, and eventually healthier. Surely, in the beginning someone did not want to grill his share of meat. It was for him time consuming.
However, such a game suggests that we invented a way to grill. It needed a new technology. It also needed calibration, a transformation process to make it not only better, but optimal.
I am sure not everyone did the right thing at the same time. Doubt is something that has saved human being from insanity. Without doubting, we would have killed ourselves because a god wanted so. But as we doubted, we saved ourselves from trouble.
May be only one person was convinced by the transformation process. The majority eat their raw meat, and went to hunt again. Some did not come back, attacked by a ferocious animal, or by another tribe nearby. The one who stayed behind grilling his meat waited them, they came back exhausted while he was contemplating the stars. They tried to explain, but they were too tired. They went to bed. Soon they forgot themselves in irrational dreams. Many days after, the stubborn but survivors realized that sitting around a fire was a more interesting game than hunting in the middle of night. The fire lured them. It was enjoyable to be around and to let something else take over. They could see each other in the eyes, make remarks. They played together. Soon it became a special moment to talk about something from the inside. They played more and more.
While sitting someone told someone else that it would be interesting to fool people living in the next village. They went there pretending something. They found them fighting each other. The game for them was interesting. But as they approached, the smell of a grilled meat reached them. They wanted to ask what it was. They told them that the grilled meat was a new game they have discovered. It is from an area where grilled meats drop from the sky. Those who heard asked more. They wanted to know the route there. They went, they never came back. Those behind laughed. They took their wives, they made their sons slaves, they were the masters.
All kind of stories could be told to an ignorant person who did not assist to the transformation process, who did not see that it was a raw meat, there was a fire, there was people around waiting, there was a moment where they all were puzzled by the transformation. They could have said to those absent that the grilled meat was the same meat but transformed. A simple industry with a simple technology separated people from the same environment.
In countries, where different games are organized to increase the chance for every one to play at least a game that can be watched by someone else, people tend to produce more independently of the political system ruling them. In countries where games are few, people produce less, poverty tends to be the share of those who watch, and wealth the share of those who play.
All societies are inherently unequal. Different beliefs lead to different choices.

What's next?

Players take actions anticipating their future moves. Where is the point to make a move if it does not take you further? What is the point to make a move when you lost already?
Future moves include as well your opponent moves. In economics, players reach a Nash-equilibrium when they can clearly identify the best response of each players in the game. A poor strategist will ignore the best moves of his opponent by attempting a blockage of some sort. Such a strategy works when the blockage is not anticipated by the opponents. Every player must be aware of the possible actions combined with different strategies. Every player must anticipate the outcomes of these actions. You are a poor opposition leader if you don't consider the best response of the ruling president. I cannot help it, but to take note of how poor politicians in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) tend to be every time they play.
These politicians are doomed to fail as they are overconfident. In 2006, the country adopted a new constitution imposing the presidential terms to 2 of 5 years long. The acting president of that time sign in law the constitution and made it public. The acting president became president Joseph Kabila, and went out in public to declare his faith in the new constitution.
I did read the constitution and found good and bad things in it. Among the good things, it expressively exhorted the citizens of the DRC to resist against any attempt for a dictatorship move. There are few constitutions in the world that give its people a licence to resist. Another good thing is that it is impossible to modify the constitution regarding the institutional form of the state, and the presidential terms. Among the bad things was the denial of citizenship to Congolese who adopted another citizenship.
Nine years later, the president and his team are showing all the signs of players who want to cheat. Their argument is that the constitution is not longer adapted to the current situation of the country. Clearly, the argument is that at the time the constitution was sign in law, the country was facing rebellious movements. What they really mean is that their hand was forced to sign whatever they want to change today. Such an argument is flawed, and intellectually dishonest. It is in contradiction with the notion that the DRC is an independent state. Once the president signs a text in law, blames should not be on the process. Another serious contradiction is that the acting president became the president, which implies that he agreed on the terms of the constitution. Denying the terms of the constitution that made him president means that he must have resigned as a president. He cannot possible deny the source of his power when still president.
Of course the president and his team can play another card. They can ignore the constitution to force a new republic or monarchy or whatever suitable for them to remain in power as long as the cost is lower than the gain. It means that they should not change the constitution, they should kill it. The trouble is that if killed, the citizens have the legal authority to resuscitate it. The constitution gives them the licence to resist any one who kills the constitution.
The current tension in the country reflects the move of the ruling president. I don't know what is the outcome of such a move. One thing for sure, this move was anticipated by the members of the opposition. Worse the move is anticipated by the international community. It remains to see if the move will not lead the current president to a bloody end.

Corniche Beirut

I woke up today and took a walk toward downtown Beirut. Today is off in Lebanon. Another Easter to celebrate. The orthodox (Eastern) Easter that comes one week later. Is not amazing to work in a country with so many religions, each with its particular celebration dates? Talking about tolerance, coexistence, and trade-offs, Lebanon has a number of lessons to give to the rest of the world in this respect. Not because I enjoyed these off-days, but simply because every one celebrates every one's else day. In Lebanon, you are lost between those who could be seen as Christians and those who could be seen as Muslims. Every one is equally happy to wish you good health and prosperity on your celebration days. Lebanese disagree on a number of political issues, but when it comes to tolerate each one's beliefs, there are not many countries I can compare Lebanon with.
Today it was not the best weather for a walk on the Corniche, but I could not resist the call of the Mediterranean sea, dressed with a black coat of bad days. If you think about large, voluble, and profound object on the earth, the sea is such an object. It is not the greatest, but it gives you an idea of what is big but flexible; what is beautiful but dangerous; and what is profound but specially polluted by human activities. From my apartment I have a partial view of the Pigeon Rocks, the symbol of Beirut. From my window, on sunny days, I can enjoy the view of the sea dazzling, waves dancing in the air, the sun coloring the space, and the blue merging with waves.
I have been a while in Beirut, Corniche longing the seaside and Charles De Gaulle avenue, is the promenade with most of my footprints. Corniche is a long promenade of 4.8 kilometers, and has never been beautiful since its trajectory has been prolonged toward the sea at the Zaitouna Bay.
I would start my walk from KFC and turn North. The first corner is an amazing spot as it reveals the south part of Beirut. You can see, if lucky, an aircraft about to land. You have a clear view of the Pigeon Rock. I usually spend 2 - 3 minutes here. I will then continue my walk down to the military beach. The promenade gets larger from the Riyadi sport centers on the other side of Chales De Gaulle Avenue.
From the first end of the military compound to the lighthouse, the promenade is not as crowded with people as at the corner nearby the lighthouse. There is a restaurant just about the seaside.
From the lighthouse, the promenade is open to the sea and the mountains. From here you start sensing why there are so many people visiting the promenade Corniche every day. There is a great sense of freedom at the Corniche where all kinds of activities take place. People run, walk, stand by, take selfie, and ride. Every one enjoys a superb view of the blue-sky melting into the sea.
Corniche reveals also a city full of contrast. On one side the sea inviting every one to enjoy and to share, on another side skyscrapers distinguishing the very few. Strange enough these apartments with a breathtaking sea view are rarely occupied. You don't see people sitting on the large balconies. Maybe they lock themselves behind tinted glasses. But I really wonder why pay so much for so little use. There must be a rational explanation.
Corniche is not equally occupied. There are spots where you see people standing, sitting or taking their breaths, but there are spots where every one is in move. Joggers are better off running from the first end of the military compound to AUB. Beyond packs of people move slowly.

Nested "IF" statements under MS Excel

I was trying the other day to use conditional statements in Excel, but was getting an error message. I did not want write a VBA-code for a simple task.
I wanted to calculate the score of Exam 2 for a student who had perfect attendance, a score of 90 or above in homework assignments, and a score of 90 or above in Exam 1. My policy this semester is that such a student can skip exam 2.

How I solved the problem?

First, I wrote one single IF statement for condition 1, which is the score in exam 1 as follows,

=IF(D3>=90,D3,($E$54-25)*$E$55),

where D3 is the cell where the score of exam 1 is for student i, and the expression ($E$54-25)*$E$55 is an expression to calculate the score for an exam with 25 questions. I will note this expression as C.
Let me denote the first IF statement as X1.

Second, I added a second IF statement to X1 conditional on class attendance as follows,

=IF(Attendance!E2="YES",X1,C),

where Attendance! is the name of a sheet. Let me denote the second IF statement as X2.

Third, I added a third IF statement to X2 conditional on the assignment score as follows,

=IF(Assigment!C2>=90,X2,C).

In this way "IF" statements can be nested almost endlessly.
The key in nesting IF is to make sure that the structure of an IF statement is respected,

=IF(condition,command,clearance)

=IF(A>B,A,B), 

which means if A is greater than B, then A, else B.

In my ancestors' footprints

Why nations fail by James Robinson and Daron Acemoglu is a book I enjoyed reading. The book does not save on examples that speak to Africans. It digs into the unknown history of the Democratic Republic of Congo to show the roads we took to fail.
I understood by reading the book that failure is not a random event, it is an outcome of our attitude toward newness, risk, and the unknown. Curiosity engages your spirit, and dissociates yourself from your own world. Moreover, I understood that our failure cannot be separated from our ancestors' system of thoughts.
In Africa, ancestors are regarded with a great esteem. They are in the imaginary of Africans part of their societies. I still have a little understand of the role my ancestors played in the making up of Africa. When I look back in history, it is difficult to understand why we give them so much place in our life when they did not prepare the future we are in. May be I am not humble, but I do not see many signs from the past to invite them. Their failure is not as much in the lack of technological initiative, but in giving themselves into others' ideas.
There are people who believe strongly in the ancestors as physical entities. They feed them. They call on them. In the Nether Congo, where I am from we are not really into ancestors' business. We are much westernized in our beliefs.  Every thing is about representation. Surely, the weakness of our African beliefs is the lack of codification. Every one has his/her own ancestor, own god, and own way to relate to the future.
The way we believe in a large part of Africa runs against the common belief that Africans come from like-minded communities. Nothing is more false than the idea that Africans drink from the same stream of beliefs. We share material things, but not spiritual things. May be we share the same fear, but fear does not proceed from knowledge, it proceeds from ignorance of one's environment.
In places where beliefs were codified in few schools of thoughts, it helped to unite a large group of people. Sharing into the same beliefs give power, confidence, and trust. Africans are individuals united in their souls, but not in their brains.

The 425 indigents of the DRC

What was revealed in Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on April 3, 2015 is shocking, and astonishing. 425 persons were buried in one big hole like dogs. Nobody really knows of what they die. Some are speculating that they are the victims of the three famous days of January 19, 20 and 21, 2015. I stick to what was said.
What do we know about the 425 bodies? We know that they did not pay for their hospitalization. We also know that the 425 lived and died indigents. We do not have their names. They are unknown. We could call them the unknown 425 Congolese. Why they buried them all in one big hole? Why the authority decided to bury the 425 altogether?
No place was found for the 425 indigents. Only one big hole, near Kinshasa. I don't know if a priest was invited to say few words for the 425 indigents. Obviously, not. The 425 indigents really got during their life time an unmerciful foe. He pursued them in their dreams of death. He denied the least he would not refuse to his/her worst enemy. What the 425 indigents did to the Congo to earn such a treatment? What or who the 425 indigents displeased so much?
The interior minister said their foe was poverty. They were so poor the government could not give them a proper burial. If poverty was the enemy of the 425 peoples, nothing good is to be expected for the rest of the population. Congolese must start saving for the funeral expenses. Through the 425 bodies, they government is sending a clear message. Pay your bills. If you don't, the government will bury you, yes, but as a community of indigents. Pay your hospitalization expenses, otherwise you will be buried like a dog, if you are lucky.
Someone may think that the interior minister, Boshab, is not of Congolese origin. He is 100% Congolese. The man is a professor of law at the University of Kinshasa. He represents by himself the intellectual caution of the Kabila's regime. So, we are talking about somebody who has a good command of the french language. He came out and called the 425 Congolese indigents. What else they were, if not indigents?
What is amazing in this story is the treatment given to human body. Here, we are not talking about Boko Haram or Al-Shabab, we are talking about the government of the DRC. Yes, the 425 may have been poor. But they were so poor that they did not have a family, or a friend who cares? Those questions I will keep asking myself until the day another story will be told.

I am a Garissa Student

I am saddened by the killing of students at the Garissa University in Kenya. Last months, France and Denmark had their shares. When it happened in France, the news was in the air as if the entire world was shaking. Heads of states from different countries came to France to share the sorrow of the French people. Even Barak Obama was thought to make the trip to France. We saw how the leaders of Europe walked hand in hand. Charlie Hebdo insulted the prophet. The 147 students in Garissa never made such a statement. They never went out insult any religion. Still they were targeted, and dealt in the same way as journalists at Charlie Hebdo. The 147 students were no Jews. Regardless, there were killed as Jews in Paris. What did the 147 students to deserve a death penalty? Did they write essays condemning al-Shabaab?
The images in France and Denmark were amazing. I could not help it. I felt like as I was part of that society. Even though I am not living in France, the emotion came all the way to me. I was almost feeling as being Charlie. Now there are 147 students killed in Kenya. Three days of mourning in Kenya. But what is the response of the world? We cannot compare. It is day and night. Africans felt Charlie, but as for Garissa, they don't feel a thing.
The emotion for the 147 is minimal. You cannot compare with the emotion orchestrated for the 19 in France. I will not ask for the international community to mourn for our 147 young students. They have been many tragedies in different parts of the world claiming more life. But it is important as an African to get a good perspective of values, and emotions the Westerns talk about.
147 young students killed, not because they were black, but because those who killed them thought that they were not thinking like them. They were a danger for their virtual society. The sentence of death was taken to show power, the capacity to harm. Of course, as African themselves, easy targets were chosen. Unarmed people holding in their hands at best a pen and a notebook. The murderers knew that they will be victorious. Terrorists had guns in their hands, our 147 students had books. Books against Guns, where is the so much power of the god they kill for.
147 young persons, the future of Kenya, and the hope of Africa assassinated for no good reasons by ordinary people with an agenda written by others.
Kenya is a melting pot of people from different parts of Africa.
I visited Kenya in 2000, loved Nairobi, and promised myself to go back there. Bad news does come from Kenya, but most of time you hear good things about Kenya. You hear these things from foreigners who had a chance to visit the country. From the airport to downtown you come to appreciate Kenyans. They have really learned how to accommodate a foreign visitor. You can take a taxi from the airport and reach your hotel without much wondering. This is a touristic place. Kenya is a country Africa can be proud of.
I don't know why Kenya is a target of terrorist groups. Is it because the country open itself to different religious cultures? It is difficult to answer the why question. Only those who committed such a massacre know the answer to our questions.
We cannot rationalize the killings of 147 students. These murderers want take Kenya back to the time of obscurantism. The same philosophy as Boko Haram in Nigeria, they do not want the young African to be free in his/her mind. They don't want Kenyans making their ways to a better understanding of their neighbors. For them I guess their neighbor must be a god.
Now it is pointless to try talk reason to theses guys. Their representation of the world is completely at the opposite of the common reason. They want Kenyans to point finger. But I hope Kenyans should continue to speak the language of brotherhood.
I also pray that my brothers and sisters in pain will find peace in Jesus Christ in their own ways and times. May God show mercy on all of us.

End roads

In 2016, there will be a presidential election in the U.S., but also in the democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Very strange that the two countries are changing their president about the same time. In the U.S., there is no question, the president Barack Obama will step down at the eve of 2017. In the DRC, it is still debatable if president Joseph Kabila will accept to do something else for the five coming years and attempt a comeback in 2021. He will only be 50 years old in 2021. But 5 years in the opposition can be hard when JOKA has been president at age 29 years old.
Stepping down as a president is difficult. It will be difficult for even Barack Obama. If it was difficult for presidents whose actions are politically, legally, and administratively guided, what about a too powerful president?
I have read these days people around Joseph Kabila initiating new questions. I am surprised that wrong questions have been asked. It is no longer about how good or poor he is as a president. The question is not who likes him or not. That is not the question. The question is what the constitution says?
Instead of helping the guy to see how he can save himself from trouble, his advisers are not helping him see the next step. The same people were there when the constitution was written. The same president did sign it. Why they did not think clearly then? Poor advisers.
What is more damaging forcing the president to commit political suicide or preparing someone of his party capable to win and to save him from future troubles? Time has been wasted in stating the obvious. He will not be president after 2016 as he is now.

les limites économiques

L’économie que j'enseigne a l’université n'est qu'une science humaine. Elle n'y a aucun principe de divinité qui la pousserait vers les firmaments des cieux. C'est une science qui s'adapte aux humains. Elle est opportuniste. Elle utilise tout ce qu'elle trouve sur son chemin pour apparaitre. Elle a le don d'imitation prodigieuse. Elle vous met du physique quantique pour analyser des données financières. Elle vous donne une proposition sur base des processus stochastiques qui n'ont aucune existence à la hauteur de leurs belles espérances. Elle fait tout pour vous compliquer la tache de comprendre qu'elle vous pousse à posséder. Elle est implacable dans ses entêtements théoriques. Vautrées dans des habits faits pour d'autres plus grands et plus durs, les sciences économiques ne cherchent pas a découvrir une autre planète. Elle est trop bien chez elle sur la terre pour tenter une escapade astronomique vers des milliards d’étoiles apparemment sans propriétaire. Le jour elle ira là-bas, ça sera la fin du monde de la contemplation gratuite. Les propriétaires vous diront où pointer votre télescope. Nos bonnes théories parleront du bien que les taxes font pour ne pas trop regarder le soleil brûlant. Ça sera tellement vrai que nous payerons sans se rendre compte qu'on est entré dans l'ère du vide marchandé. Le marché des astres aura alors poussé la croissance économique aux portes des dividendes. Déjà des industries commencent à poindre le bout de leur nez car il faut aller là-bas pour rejoindre les promesses du lointain charmant. 

Je me trompe souvent. Je ne verrai pas ce jour où les marchés s'empareront des astres lointains. Je serais devenu poussières astrales et vagabondes autours de quelques astres inconnus. Alors pendant que je suis encore là. Laissez-moi douter. 
Je doute for que les sciences économiques deviennent une science universelle, capable d'expliquer les lois de production, de distribution, et d’échange partout et en tout. 

L'homme peut s'hasarder et utiliser sa propre rhétorique pour, par exemple, calquer ses principes économiques sur ceux du règne animal et végétal. Mais il est à parier que beaucoup des principes économiques seront incapables d'expliquer le choix de vie ou de mort chez des êtres dont les motifs spirituels sont totalement inconnus aux humains, piégés par un sens raffiné du haut et du bas, du plus et du moins, du début et de la fin, et du plein et du vide. 

On peut effectivement penser que tous les êtres sont égoïstement marathoniens du gain, du toujours plus, et du dégoût qui vient avec le gout. Comme ils vivent comme nous, nous devons partager un même dénominateur commun. Après tout, ils doivent cheminer sur les mêmes chemins du désir de se multiplier, se photographier, se cloner, et laisser derrière soi, soi-même. 

C'est déprimant de penser que mêmes les êtres si petits que le bout de mes cheveux soient à ce point friand du gain. Derrière, il y a l’idée, que rien ne tient debout sur cette terre. Il n'y a aucun être dans cette jungle naissant avec des vertus du refus, d'abandon, de perte, de disparition volontaire et immédiate. Pire il n'y a aucun qui se nourrisse pour consciemment s’offrir en nourriture. Il y a de victimes, mais victimes d'inconscience. Elles ne luttent pas pour perdre. Je parle des vrais volontaires sans leur volonté égoïste. Celui sur qui l'hasard n'imprime pas sa volonté. Il va échouer dans les mains de son bourreau qui lui même marchera calmement vers sa fin heureuse. Il est évident que j'ai besoin de mes principes économiques pour mettre de l'ordre dans mes pensées.  

Comme attaché a l'instant zéro, j'entrevois des liens indéfectibles entres les choses, les éléments, et les êtres. Seulement, je doute que mes principes économiques puissent régenter cet univers bien contradictoire dans ses rotations et révolutions. Les principes économiques ne peuvent aller jusqu'au plus profond de l'univers et expliquer les luttes bestiales qui s'y déroulent. 

Que les sciences économiques fassent du beau et du mauvais temps sur la terre des hommes, il n'est pas souhaitable que ces sciences aillent dire aux insectes comment ils doivent se comporter pour produire plus, gagner plus, et sauvegarder plus. 

Un Adam Smith chez les insectes fera un tabac. Et viendra de génération d'insectes dites intelligentes qui découvrira comme les John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern les bases de la théorie de jeux. Un peu d'intelligence ici et là ne peut faire que plus du mal. Tout doit être possédé chez les humains. Il y a comme une éternité dans des choses qu'on a accumulé. 

Peut être que le monde d'ailleurs obéit aux mêmes lois universelles que nous, mais certainement les principes économiques ne sont pas assez vertigineux pour expliquer le silence assourdissant du monde animal et végétal fasse au bruit de nos machines à pousser la planète vers son néant.